From Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting
Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates October 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales at 1.9 million units, a year-over-year increase of 65 percent from October 2019. Likely single handgun sales (1.0 million) increased year-over-year by 81 percent, whereas single long-gun sales (0.74 million) increased year-over-year by 48 percent. All other likely background check-related sales (0.14 million) increased year-over-year by 58 percent. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the exact split between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.
NSSF estimates the increase was 60 percent.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for October, some 3,268,909) cannot be taken at face value as large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in October the state of Illinois conducted about 429,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user unit sales at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 51,000. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the true number of sales.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer commented that “2020 continues on its record firearms sales pace, with the year-to-date total now reaching 18.6 million units sold. Handguns continue to outsell long-guns but at a continuously declining rate since June of this year. (In June, the rate was 2.2 handguns per long-gun; in October, it was 1.4 handguns per long-gun.)”
By the end of September U.S. gun sales had already shattered all previous records.