Chart and press release from Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting
Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates November 2020 U.S. firearms unit sales at 2.1 million units, a year-over-year increase of 49% from November 2019.
Detailed data by firearms type and state are available for purchase at https://SmallArmsAnalytics.com/shop/.
SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for November, some 3,602,296) cannot be taken at face value as large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in November the state of Illinois conducted about 500,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user unit sales at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 56,000. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the true number of sales.
SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “while November 2020 continues the year’s record-breaking pace – now standing at well over 20 million units – this month’s 49% year-over-year increase is by far the smallest such monthly increase since March this year.”